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tv   Countdown to the Closing Bell  FOX Business  August 23, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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more than $35 a 4-month high today. the euro hitting a 7-week high. the dollar, obviously stronger gold, but it was not reflected with crude oil. a true indicator. and we told you yesterday to watch hewlett-packard. the dow component, it is the biggest loser by a long shot. a number of analysts cutting the price target. after quarterly revenue came in below expectations. personal-computer and enterprise company also issued which -- weaker than expected patents. the stock is down. as billions of investment dollars of the past year have soared, many of the treasury's and out of stocks, we have the name in fixed-income here with us exclusively. the britney act over bonds.
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you loved, as the best place for your portfolio. i'm going to ask him which part you like best. the seven year, ten year, 30 year? plus, why he says central banks could be killing, not helping the world economy. by the way, the position has been attacked by some people. we're going to push him on this and find out why he's so-. here we go. the market right here. the s&p looks positions for its first weekly loss. let's get right to the floor show. traders in the new york stock exchange, cme, and the nymex. looking at this, okay, i'm not so surprised all were read. the s&p this week has ended higher. >> let's not kid in panic mode over one small move in the market. we talked about how this market is moved up last nine weeks.
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light volume, high one way volatility. this is going to happen in the inverse relation. days like today weather is not a lot going on, not a lot moving the market. investors are waiting and looking for opportunities to take some short-term profit off the table. why not do it now? were getting closer to the end of the summer. a lot of people in europe for on vacation. any time there is an opportunity to take some money off the table , i said were going to see it. heading into next week, and of the month from a not really looking for a lot to happen. earnings season is essentially over. economic it will be like. expect the market to move on secondary, tertiary headlines. liz: remind me, you're coming from new jersey. >> now, new york, westchester. liz:, that is a nice area. a lot of hedge fund guys, ceos might be taking time. the volume comes down. in chicago i bet you have your own indicators of what the
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market is doing and why. >> you know, on a technical basis this market has made a really nice rally. i'm not surprised to see it come back. you're going to see some profit-taking. there is a whole lot out there. i think the fed ease thing is being way overblown. an important point about stale data come as we have to keep an eye and that. we might see a little bit of al. we tested love 1400's. 1390. if we have some terrific event you will get down to 1375. in the long run i'm positive. let's keep an eye and the economic data that's coming out and that would give us a good indication as to whether the fed should do any type of these. liz: and let you give us the perspective of don't overblow what's being done. stay tuned until traders on the floor of the chicago merc to watch. he's talking about that very issue. before that, head over to the nymex. i was saying earlier. oil did not behave the same
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legal did. pullback, but what gold is doing, jumping so significantly. really did not see the weaker dollar play it well as much as we might have expected. >> you're right. to me, it looks like we are at the tail end of the season for crude oil and natural gas to be up. it's going to be a sale. i'm looking to sell it between 98 and 102. i think we get one more pop before the end of the season. on leaded gas refineries are going to have to start cutting back. driving season will start cutting back. come september crude oil comes off, it's below $90 even sees 85. natural-gas, once again, the season is just about to end. we don't have a heating season coming up for two months. natural gas is going to go down to two in the quarter, even 175. liz: a snowstorm in october. >> we did. that gas heating system. liz: thank you so much for
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joining us on the floor show. release my perspective. a sense of what is happening with the traders. now let's get the bigger perspective. you heard saying, everybody is over poignant come over thinking what might be done. if somebody has been watching all central bank behavior, and he believes that they're not helping, but killing the economy my next guest says the more they try to help the more their risk of running the entire system. joining us now in a fox business exclusive, just in from the coast, executive vice president. a pretty strong statement that central bankers are killing the economy. >> it is a strong word to use, but what we would mean by that is that, of course, central banks cannot ultimately solve the insolvency issue. we think of europe, lots of debt. the big structural dilemmas in the countries of italy and spain and greece cannot be solved by liquidity. they're putting off the day of reckoning, you could say, by giving the politicians time to
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make change. think of italy. 156 in the world in contract enforcement out of 183 nations. liquidity to mckinnon effect that? can affect the frigidity or the tax collection? liz: of course not. >> i can go on and on. it's essential. will we have is called a fractional reserve system. a little confusing, but when you put your money in the bank it winds up turning into about $8 in loans for every dollar you put in. that is a fractional reserve system. we will move rather see is a warehouse system where your delegates parked in maybe somebody else will make a loan, but on the dollar for dollar so that we have this large system relented to the economy. central banks have to sell assets and reverse what has happened over many decades. liz: dying to know what you
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thought would use of the fed minutes, whether you do expect what is called qb three of quantitative easing or asset purchasing by the fed. >> they put an exclamation point on its august 1st statement where it made it clear that it was likely to move toward easing it delivered language that was identical to the language it gave september 2010 right before the last qb. and so the minutes showed a very clear because it used the term many describe the numbers of voters in support of action. it also said it would take action fairly soon unless there was substantial improvement in data. liz: fairly soon, the last of which in the really unless they do and enter meeting move, which is rare , but its september. that is their last meeting of the year. >> ben bernanke will speak in jackson hole at the annual symposium. they love going there. they go fishing. he will speak. liz: are you going?
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>> i'm not going. we will watch it closely. he will look to what the will to on september 13th when they hold their next meeting. likely that they deliver some form of using. liz: our economy is still growing. what is working? >> some pluses include the energy sector. north dakota, second largest producing oil state in the country next to texas takes the spot from alaska. car sales. credit is expanding. and housing bottoming probably adds near a half point to gdp is year or slightly less. he knows next year teeseven the most powerful headwind. what isn't working? >> a long time, we have had above distraction. people are down a lot in their homes. 4 trillion. that suppresses consumption. income growth. that is in the normal figure.
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the old normal was 3%. that's why the economy is growing at two and not three. finally, we have the fiscal cliff. liz: europe. >> europe. liz: you mean to making available? >> to set earlier, credit. banks are lending on the whole. when i break it down and look at it, the report, you can see on their website. liz: and jumping on right now. >> the data. you see that real estate loans have been going down. everything else is up. if mortgage credit improved, imagine someone from nevada or georgia can get out of their house where they're stuck in their homes because housing is not done well, negative equity. they cannot move to north dakota in some cities it's under 1%. more mortgage credit would help. it would help to create more wealth, and people would spend.
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liz: got it. tony watches all kinds of fixed income. i'm going to put into the test and test in which part of the yield curve, if you have to be in bonds , was part of the yield curve. he will tell you coming up. o.c. un a minute. the latest on the drought. the coast guard. finally open the mississippi river to clear the back of barges which have just been sitting there because there is not enough water. how badly will the shallow water hurt shipments? jeff flock in clinton, iowa. hello. >> reporter: we're starting to see activity again. it's about time. now that we have that barge blockade essentially freed companies along the river, this is their big grain loading facility. there you see one of the talks coming right down the river here today starting to put these barges in position to be loaded again. i tell you. and go ahead and take us down
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the way. you see numbers, that is so deep that can be loaded. the guarantee is for a 9-foot channel. a deeper channel they can look deeper. now they cannot love them anywhere near as deeply because the water level, although the river is open, the water level remains low. as long as the water level remains low they can out of those barges as deeply as they would like which means trouble for them. these are all what they call box barges. they are used for grain. arthur danielle midland is a huge shipper of grain, exporter of grain. as we have been reporting, 60 percent. spin right around. this is how big this facility is. not only processing grain, but the process all sorts of stuff. it's almost 1 mile of facilities
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along the river. kind of interesting to see that. back operating again, at least for now, and we hope that it holds down on that south side. we will continue watching a. liz: feast of famine. floods a shallow water. thank you very much for bringing really the story like nobody else has. this affects all of us because we all -- we showed the chart, and about $3 above its annual low. we can't necessarily say it's affecting it right now, but we have to watch these names. you might want to look at that because it could affect anyone any of those barges on the rivers. there is the 1-year chart. well off highs. closing bell ringing in 48 minutes. coming up, peter barnes exclusive interview with republican presidential candidate mitt romney. wait until you hear what he had to say about who would lead the
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federal reserve if he wins the election.
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liz: shares hitting an all-time high today. they assess pulled back. let's get to lauren for the halo effect. >> reporter: down right now, but hitting all-time highs. wholefoods as well as the fresh market. both of these really knocking historic levels. what happened was wells fargo came out and started with an outperform rating. at the same time, like the gain we are seeing. you might not have heard of the company, but it is in the organic food marketing and manufacturing business. it's surging right now. it's been a good day for some companies, even though we have down arabs. -- down arrows to. liz: the has been really smart.
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twenty-seven. he talked about being in the money. he's always wanted to be they will conglomerate. looking right now. celestial t, nine tenths of the stuff that you buy a whole foods. good stuff. the jump of 18% on trading volume of 4 million shares. twitter. not typically traded. it typically reevaluating its ipo plans after facebook debacle . everyone has been asking when it's going public. we just had one of the co-founders. the question becomes, the sterling no? one of the social media firms planning? >> i will say, unlike the ceo of facebook, unlike zucker bird, does impress wall street. he is not rushing to throw out an ipo.
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he's not out there without a plan. that is the whole thing. that was the problem with facebook. deteriorated revenue and profit. they had to do something. there was no plan. institutional investors knew that. the lodi bought the stock and got screwed. we will get into some of that later. twitter is learning from this. that's what we're hearing from sources close. they're telling us that he's basically re-evaluated his plan. who knows when to all but re-evaluated those plans to bring twitter public in the face of what is going on. what does that mean? means he wants to figure out a growth strategy before he actually goes public. now, when will they go public? the $64,000 question. i talked to someone close to the company. they say it could be a year. the notion of a year seems to be at least what they're dealing with. they are not rushing this out.
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they're talking close to a year, clearly months away. j.p. morgan, we should point out, is advising. from my understanding, jamie diamond is specifically advising mr. dorsey. can live without twittered. i put my fox business stuff on there. a very active twitter. it is an interesting thing. i'm on this lot. these guys know that they have a good product. but they also know they have to monetize it. you need a plan to show growth. one of the problems is they have no plan.
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up to you one thing about facebook. a company that has lost complete favor. a lot of conservatives who hate wall street. wall street, you need them. they evaluate stocks. austria is also the big institutional investor. i will tell you this, i know for a fact that cheryl sandberg had a meeting with an institutional investor. there were talking about why they priced the deal so high. a very rich sleep priced deal. it's biked ini. why did he do that? liz: a fair question. >> she said, and this is interesting, it shows a lack of sophistication. we pressed on the high-end because we did not want flippers, the wall street traders to flip out of it, make a quick buck. well, when you screw over then you also is grover small
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investors who like that nice little pop that maybe once a lot to the stock but hold on to it at a decent level now made a few bucks. what she also could not explain, she could not explain why it's okay for that the jews and the venture capitalists to flip out as they're doing right now. they are selling their stakes. it is usually a much longer lock up timeframe. they are allowing their insiders to sell out immediately. what is the difference? they came back to the institutional investor. we had a wall street. liz: but bull was embracing wall street, but they did it right when they went public. the auction. >> a good bounce. liz: very nice. it did not press it too expensive. >> that is to appease wall street. so flippers' make money. big deal. every ipo. very unsophisticated with a look at it. the small investor makes out.
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there is still some meat on the bonds for somebody to make money, not just the pc. the problem. i still think mr. dorsey over at twitter is learning from this experience, and that is why he's not rushing out for the ipo. he does not talk to me. twitter did not comment. liz: three weeks ago he was here, two weeks ago he was here with howard schultz said starbucks because, of course, he is also the founder of a company called square. he said there are always evaluating, but this guy was not born yesterday. we have been following him closely since fox business went on line, 2007. everyone else was blowing him off because there are not public we watched him. this was a guy who has watched things closely, found a lot of companies. he is not down. liz: -- >> one thing we can say for sure is he is smart and watch this
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facebook debacle. what happened the facebook, i will tell you, is a harvard business school -- what to they call those things, those term papers, expos is. a case study. i'm sorry. a case study. they teach students three case studies. of tell you. when -- went on with this book is really bad command this is a case study that mr. garcia's following. liz: does not surprise you. i am totally annoyed that you have 500 more twitter followers and i do. and just under 20,000. can i make an appeal to viewers? and need to be charlie. >> you know why? because i actually argue. liz: you go back? >> you would not believe. liz: i don't want to get yelled at. >> but i share. liz: with your part canadian. >> i have these will acronyms. i don't curse. i just use the acronyms. you want to know what, of dougie?
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liz: tommy off the record. follow me it's pathetic. >> where's mine? liz: we did years. you were so involved. passionate. >> i was just trying to inform the viewer. liz: dow was down 1206 points. the closing bell is 35 minutes away. oh, my god. coming up, more from peter barnes exclusive interview with republican presidential candidate mitt romney. peter is better looking. i'm telling you. i was comparing the two. tweet me. tommy his cuter. we'll find out who he thinks could replace federal reserve chairman ben bernanke. [talking over each other] ♪ everyone has goals.
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the 6 hours and 40 minutes from election day. a short time ago peter barnes sat down with one of the presidential candidates in a fox business exclusive. >> we talked to governor mitt romney of the presumptive republican nominee and we wanted to clear up where mitt romney stands on reappointing ben bernanke for another term. a third term when his current term expires in 2014. mitt romney has said he would want to appoint someone else. there is precedent with alan greenspan who got four terms. one of mitt romney's top economic advisers said in an interview this week that mitt romney should reconsider. here's what romney said about that. >> my view is i would want to select someone who was a new member -- new person to the chairman's position who shared my economic views that i thought was sympathetic to the needs of
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our nation and make sure the federal reserve focuses on maintaining the monetary stability that leads to a strong dollar and confidence that america won't go down a road other nations have gone down to their peril. >> we heard from the fed that it is considering additional stimulus moves. additional monetary policy easing as early as this meeting next month. would you support that? >> i don't think qe2 was terribly effective. i think qe 3 and other federal stimulus is not going to help this economy. that is the wrong way to go. also the kind of potential for inflation down the road that would be harmful to the value of the dollar and armfuls to the stability that our nation needs.
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peter: a follow-up conversation on glenn hubbard, a possible fed chairman appointed by president romney. he didn't bite on that. said he hasn't really thought yet about seriously who he would appoint as chairman of the federal reserve but he did unsolicited also say that great manbcu who is a harvard economist was a good buys it to him. maybe a couple games he is floating. liz: it was president bush who nominated ben bernanke and the term was up 2014. a rough couple of years. peter: he didn't want to stay and finish. more work to do. liz: charlie was asking was better looking. you or mitt romney. i said you because of the eyes. we will hear from viewers. >> i am blushing. the cowardly lion. liz: thanks very much.
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let's look where investors are putting their money in this tentative climate. you all are so scared you are going into bond funds. $7.61 billion went into bond funds and $3.92 billion went into money-market funds. and $3.2 billion out of equity funds. does this mean investors are still looking for safety and should they be and in what form? let's bring back tony chrisiny. [talking over each other] liz: does it surprise you to see those numbers? >> no. this is the trend for more than a decade. financial bubble in 2000 scared people lot of the stock market. at that point in time household representing half the stock market capitalization sunk to the mid 30s and stayed there. the population is aging.
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last year was the first year baby boomers between 46-64 turned 65 and they experienced two shocks and don't want to go to assets they're vulnerable. liz: we're looking at the fact that people want to go to treasury so i am playing the game of kick any maturity. people have to be in u.s. treasuries. which part of the yield curve the light? >> what the fed is doing is creating inflation. the objective is to create inflation. that is bad for the long end of the yield curve. the short end is too low but the short rates are entered by federal reserve policy. the sweet spot as seven year maturity and the best performing sector in the treasury because of something called rolled down. seven year will become that six year. the distance in yield between seven year in six years the most of any point on the yield curve so that means something special about it. the price will go up as the yield goes down.
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and you get an extra percentage point from holding that because it rolls down the yield curve. liz: you can buy the seven year. there are all kinds of vehicles that enable you to do it. the ticker symbol fyz is. money markets, they had to postpone or put off a new vote on making regulations more strict. >> made them safer not long ago and shorten the maturities increasing the liquid assets that were necessary. year-ago about half of those invest outside government securities, half reinvested in european banks and now 10% so much safer than they were if you are afraid of europe. liz: the closing bell ringing in 20 minutes. we are struggling with equities but what about how many of you have wanted to refinance?
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having trouble? mortgage expert calling the housing bottom on fox business back in may. you need to hear everything he has to say about this. seymour new home sales increase for the third time in the past four months. is now the time to be a buyer? why are you having trouble? we will talk about that next.
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>> i am adam shapiro. it is another tough day for the market as expectations for stimulus action from the federal reserve begin to fade. the dallas on track for its largest losing streak in three weeks and the dow is down 170s. general motors will in this $220 million in the 2 ohio
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factories to build the next generation chevy crew. the automakers as the investment will help secure 5,000 jobs. the new model is gm's second best selling car will get better gas mileage than the version currently on the market. chevron's richmond refinery and operate at reduced capacity everybody erupted there earlier this month. the enemy in some early shutdown. it ranks as california's second largest refinery when running at full capacity. we continue count down to the closing bell lauren simonetti at the stock exchange. >> rising for the third time in four months. we will show you 5 talks -- five stocks rallying today. one of them is reaching the highest level in five years. and you have fiberglass filling buckets and mohawk industries relating to the housing sector
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and getting a nice boost the new home sales coming in at 372 in five months. liz: speaking of new home sales they were of 3.9% matching of the 2-year hot blood refinancing and mortgage applications dropped last week. what is going on? records so low, chief market strategist for residential finance corp. dropped week over week down 9% for refinancing. that is not because people don't want to because rate this of the they're having trouble. what is going on? >> been in the previous week we have seen interest rates move up so when you see an interest-rate move higher and refinance side sometimes it will slow down but you are correct. there are -- people think they can save money and they get
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their appraisal and it doesn't come up to sometimes what is needed on the 80% loan and 20% equity or sometimes they are under water and the property is worth less than the mortgage. sins there are a couple solutions. people and look to alternatives. f h a will be more forgiving. a little bit of a premium but on the back end you get some other entity by my home you get 3%. that is pretty cool. on the other side the personal the solutions we heard about have been very beneficial. if you have a loans that qualifies you can save a ton of money. >> you called the housing bottom last time you were on the
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program. time to buy or sell? >> if you are a byron you are patient, six months from now, i don't think it is going to happen but if you are a buyer today and you are saying i will live in this home for seven years or ten years you will do very well for two reasons. lot of pent-up demand, six million people between twenty-five and 30 and the ability right now to purchase a home and finance it at lower yields so over time you will do well. rents are expensive too. liz: barry has guided me every step of the way and in the right way. i am listening to you. vice president and chief market strategist for residential finance corporation. coming up "after the bell" somebody in the trenches when a comes to home building. a fox business exclusive with ara hovnanian. closing bell ringing and 15
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liz: what is a girl to do? tony chriscany, what is it going to do? >> you once a bonds that growing markets with a housing recovery. think of the other sellers. anyone in the housing industry might be right for the picking the but you have to be careful about where you are in the capital structure and the high in the capital structure. look for those that have hard
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assets to sell. liz: we brought up some corporate bonds and we cannot throw this up as we talk about other options. i would love to throw in you need bonds. when you look at the return of me andes versus treasury. >> they are yielding 115% of treasurys these days. unusual. bouncing around but usually under 100%. a lot of people are worried about municipalities for the last couple years. the default rate of 18,400 issues traded by moody's since 1970 only 54 have defaulted. another 55,000 doing entities with only a couple hundred -- very rare that municipalities -- doesn't mean you should be picking and choose revenue bonds over general obligations and those with a central purpose type revenue like water and sewer. cheryl: there is mint which is a
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short-term money-market bond. >> one has to step outside the risk zone to get a little more yields. in a money-market space which is an average of 60 days. the maximum maturity. you won't get a lot of yields. got to step out a little bit and go out as far as 18 months to get more yield. it is not exciting but you will pick up some yield to go on the money market. liz: you talked about treasury inflation and protected securities. that is an anticipation of inflation because people keep saying the fed is printing too much money. we haven't seen inflation. >> we have the intent on keeping inflation near 2% and that is higher than the ten year yield and other treasury yields and if the fed is intent on doing so look at how it is telling us it is interested in stimulating the economy even though the inflation rate hasn't dipped much. it dip below its target of 2% so
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it is a way to combat what one could call excess:did. printing of money that historically the resulting inflation. liz: two years ago warren buffett i don't know where it is coming but it is coming. emerging-market. >> you have got to put your lewis and clark on. there are real yields in emerging markets in brazil. yields near 8% and inflation rates near 4 so that is better than the united states where you're getting less than the inflation rate and mexico could get more. these are countries with good strong balance sheets and nowhere near all of their adopting models that adopt more than fred 100 years in terms of how to grow the economy and growing faster. got to lend growing income producers and not those with
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increasing debt. [talking over each other] liz: the bond brainy act. we pointed this out. bolt shot up, a moonshot to its highest level since january. sandra smith understand this so well. to break down the trade. sandra: basically screams stimulus to the investors out there and the weaker dollar and flocked to gold prices so we're seeing that spike. lot of momentum behind the 5% rally so far this month. one thing i want to show you is two month and compared to silver silver is in the blue line and that is outperforming gold over the past couple months. that is dying out and gold is coming back in the picture which is above $1,600 an ounce and is where traders are going following the big move, don paulson uped at his stake to 44%
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of overall hedge fund portfolio. here is what you need to look at when you look at the gold/silver trade. the largest silver et of. we are forming the g l d. look at the gold stocks, like freeport-mcmoran, largely underperforming the big run up we have seen in gold prices and quite a run up up $31 today. liz: dig out the old nugget ring as. come on. you do not have one. closing bell ringing in six minutes. follow me on twitter at liz claman. help me beat charlie gasparino. i am 490 behind him. when we come back i will tell you the one industry falling after a bunch of downgrades for one single analyst. stay tuned. copd makes it hard to breathe,
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liz: one single analyst downgrading steel producers. let's put them on the screen. five are getting hammered anywhere from two to six or 7%. that is u.s. struggle. we are waiting on herrings and we have a top homebuilder coming. dave: a great guest tells us we have a new home sales in today. he will give us the latest what is happening with homes and we finally bottomed out. he could tell anybody can. let's go to lauren simonetti, and let's get it out of the way.
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hewlett-packard getting hammered and bill which reported a before hewlett-packard also down 4%. >> no one is buying a pcs anymore. and the most active on the dow, the biggest loser. liz: wheel futures did the complete opposite. oil futures closed after two trading sessions looking at energy stocks following suit. >> also companies that are down today. and -- >> new home sales coming better than expected. in this next hour, a real mixed situation in terms of the home stocks. >> we saw a lot of home

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